The development of transport interconnectivity is the foundation for revitalizing connectivity between Central and South Asia
I. Historical foundations of the interconnectedness of Central and South Asia
From ancient times, Central and South Asia have been closely intertwined through a network of trade, cultural, and intellectual ties. Their geographical location at the crossroads of the Great Silk Road facilitated the active exchange of goods, knowledge and ideas. Through this interaction, knowledge, scientific advances in medicine, astronomy, mathematics and architecture were disseminated, while spiritual and cultural values were formed that influenced the development of world civilization.
Over the centuries, these regions not only engaged in active trade but also frequently became part of common political entitiesIn different epochs, mighty powers such as the Greco-Bactrian and Kushan kingdoms, the Turkic Khaganate, and the states of the Ghaznavids, Timurids, and Baburids emerged in this region. Figures who left a profound mark on the history of science and literature—ranging from Al-Khwarizmi and Ibn Sina to Alisher Navoi and Rabindranath Tagore—became symbols of the significant intellectual and spiritual progress fostered by the close ties between Central and South Asia.
However, by the nineteenth century, the natural interaction between the two regions was disrupted due to political changes. The closure of borders, increased conflicts, and the erosion of previous trust led to a weakening of trade, economic, and cultural ties. Today, the restoration of historical interconnectedness has regained particular relevance, as the potential for cooperation between Central and South Asia remains immense and highly sought after in the modern world.
II. Trade between Central and South Asia: current status, structural features and export potential
Over the past eight years, trade relations between the countries of Central and South Asia have demonstrated steady growth dynamics. Nevertheless, total trade volumes remain relatively low compared to the potential of the regions. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan play a major role in the development of mutual trade, accounting for the vast majority of both exports and imports. The rest of the Central Asian countries still have a limited presence in South Asian markets.
The aggregate average annual imports of Central Asian countries from South Asia in the period 2017-2024 are characterized by high concentration in a number of key commodity groups. Pharmaceutical products (HS code 30) occupy the leading position, with annual imports reaching 485 mln. USD. This highlights the region's strategic dependence on the supply of medicines and pharmaceuticals, primarily from India.
The second and third positions are held by categories of engineering products: reactors, boilers, and mechanical equipment (HS code 84), with an import volume of 140 mln. USD, and electrical machinery, sound recording, and television equipment (HS code 85) at 90 mln. USD. Significant import volumes are also observed for mass consumption goods, such as sugar and confectionery (74 mln. USD) and meat products (44 mln. USD).
1. Total average annual imports of Central Asian countries from South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) during 2017–2024.
The aggregate average annual imports of India and Pakistan from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in the period 2017-2024 demonstrates a pronounced commodity concentration, with mineral fuels, oil and petroleum products (HS code 27) occupying a dominant position in the trade structure. The volume of supplies of this category amounts to 1.047 bln. USD per year, which confirms the strategic importance of Central Asian energy resources in meeting the energy needs of South Asia.
Next in importance are edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers (HS code 07), with a volume of 99 mln. USD, and inorganic chemicals, including rare earth and radioactive compounds (HS code 28), with exports totaling 85 mln. USD. These categories reflect the agro-industrial and raw material nature of Central Asian exports.
2. Total average annual imports of India and Pakistan from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (2017-2024).
Kazakhstan remained the leading exporter from Central Asia to India in 2017-2024. Volumes peaked in 2020 at 1992.0 mln. USD, followed by a sharp decline to 449.2 mln. USD in 2023 with a partial recovery in 2024 to 464.2 mln. USD. Turkmenistan increased exports to India from 14.9 mln. USD in 2017 to 212.4 mln. USD in 2023, but the volume declined to 108.5 mln. USD in 2024. Uzbekistan showed moderate but stable export volumes, ranging from 10.1 mln. USD in 2019 to 52.8 mln. USD in 2023. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have negligible exports, less than 10 mln. USD annually.
Central Asian exports to India remain highly concentrated in Kazakhstan, while Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan demonstrate potential to expand their export volumes.
Imports from India to Central Asian countries have grown steadily over the period under review. Uzbekistan leads in terms of import volume, reaching a record 1,292.8 mln. USD in 2024, compared to 282.0 mln. USD in 2017—indicating a several-fold increase. Kazakhstan also experienced growth, with imports rising to 510.7 mln. USD in 2024. Turkmenistan maintained modest import levels (46.8 mln. USD in 2024), while imports from India to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have virtually ceased in recent years.
Uzbekistan has become the main driver of increased imports from India, ensuring a dynamic expansion of trade flows. Thus, trade with India is largely characterized by the predominance of imports over exports.
Central Asian countries' exports to Pakistan over the analyzed period showed significant growth, primarily driven by Uzbekistan. In 2017, the volume of Uzbek exports was only 7.5 mln. USD, whereas by 2024 it increased to 408 mln. USD. Tajikistan was also active in 2020-2022, but its performance declined in subsequent years. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan maintained relatively low levels of exports to Pakistan.
Imports from Pakistan also grew dynamically. Uzbekistan showed the highest growth: from 24 mln. USD in 2017 to 188 mln. USD in 2024. Kazakhstan and Tajikistan also increased their import volumes, while Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan maintained minimal levels. Thus, Uzbekistan is becoming a key player in strengthening trade ties with Pakistan, actively increasing both exports and imports of goods.
Analysis of trade with Bangladesh shows that Uzbekistan is the leader among Central Asian countries in terms of exports, although the overall figures remain modest. In different years, the volume of exports ranged from 6.4 to 50.5 mln. USD. Kazakhstan and Tajikistan have also exported, but in much smaller volumes. Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan practically did not carry out export operations towards Bangladesh. This shows that trade with Bangladesh requires further development as exports are mainly limited to Uzbekistan, which shows a fluctuating downward trend.
Imports from Bangladesh were primarily driven by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In 2024, Kazakhstan increased its imports to 119 mln. USD and Uzbekistan to 70.8 mln. USD, while imports to Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan remained low.
Thus, trade with Bangladesh is at a formative stage, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan taking the lead in this process.
Mutual trade between the countries of Central Asia and South Asia shows positive dynamics, although its scale is still far from reaching its full potential. Uzbekistan has become the main driver of trade growth with South Asia in recent years, particularly actively by strengthening ties with Pakistan. Kazakhstan continues to maintain a leading role in trade with India, despite a slight decline in export volumes after 2021.
Overall, Central Asian exports to India grow significantly between 2017 and 2020, peaking at 2013.4 mln. USD in 2020. However, from 2021 onwards, there is a gradual decline in exports, falling to 602.6 mln. USD in 2024. Imports from India also showed growth, especially after 2020, increasing from 928.7 mln. USD in 2020 to 1,850.1 mln. USD in 2024. Central Asian countries maintained a positive trade balance with India from 2017 to 2022. However, from 2023 onwards, the trade balance turned negative and reached a deficit of -1247.4 mln. USD in 2024, reflecting rising imports with a sharp decline in exports.
From 2023, Central Asia faces a widening trade deficit with India, which requires active export promotion measures.
During the observed period, Central Asian exports to Pakistan grew steadily: from 46.7 mln. USD in 2017 to a record 423.8 mln. USD in 2024. Imports from Pakistan have fluctuated: after declining in 2020 (72.8 mln. USD), they increased to 240.0 mln. USD in 2023 and totaled 231.5 mln. USD in 2024. The trade balance was negative in 2017-2018. However, since 2019, the situation improved with a significant surplus of 112.2 mln. USD recorded in 2021. In 2024, the trade surplus amounted to 192.3 mln. USD. Central Asia has significantly strengthened its market position in Pakistan, turning a negative balance into a strong surplus due to the growth in exports.
Central Asian exports to Bangladesh remained low, falling from 51.8 mln. USD in 2017 to 17.9 mln. USD in 2024. In contrast, imports from Bangladesh increased substantially: from 62.3 mln. USD in 2017 to 189.9 mln. USD in 2024. The trade deficit remained persistent throughout 2017-2024. The deficit increased from -10.6 mln. USD in 2017 to -172.0 mln. USD in 2024. Trade between Central Asian countries and Bangladesh is developing in favor of the latter, and Central Asian countries need to focus on diversifying and increasing their exports to this market.
Overall, imports of goods from South Asian countries to Central Asia are growing faster than exports, resulting in a negative trade balance in favor of South Asia. At the same time, Central Asian countries are striving to diversify their foreign economic relations and intensify trade with South Asian partners.
Trade between the countries of South and Central Asia shows a marked unevenness both by country and product mix. According to the data presented, India is the largest exporter to the Central Asian region, with Kazakhstan (34 items) and Uzbekistan (33 items) importing the largest number of commodity items valued over 1 mln. USD. Pakistan and Bangladesh have a much more limited trade presence in the region, particularly in Turkmenistan, where no commodity category valued over 1 mln. USD is imported from Pakistan, and only one such category is imported from Bangladesh to Uzbekistan, with five categories imported to Kazakhstan.
At the same time, the export positions of Central Asian countries to South Asia are much more modest. The leaders are Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, each exporting 8 commodity items to India, and 5 and 3 items to Pakistan, respectively. The remaining countries of the region - Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan - have a limited number of exported items to South Asia, indicating insufficient diversification of their trade relations with this region. Tajikistan, in particular, stands out with virtually no commodity items over 1 mln. USD exported to India or Bangladesh.
Thus, there is an asymmetry in mutual trade: South Asian countries are far more active in exporting to Central Asia than vice versa.
This highlights the potential for the development of export opportunities for Central Asian countries, especially towards India and Pakistan, taking into account the growing economies of these countries and the possible demand for raw and processed goods.
Prospects for further trade growth depend directly on the development of transport interconnectivity, in particular the implementation of new routes through Afghanistan and the creation of multimodal logistics corridors. The simplification of trade procedures and the eliminating regulatory barriers will also play a significant role, which will allow the countries of the region to integrate more actively into the economic space of South Asia.
III. Development of transport and logistics infrastructure as a key factor in reviving dialogue and cooperation
In July 2021, Tashkent hosted the conference “Central and South Asia: Regional Connectivity. Challenges and Opportunities”, which was a turning point in recognizing the need to restore historical ties between the two regions. In his speech at the conference, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev emphasized that the creation of new transport and communication corridors is vital for the development of trade, strengthening security and expanding humanitarian ties
The Termez-Mazar-e-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar trans-Afghan railroad is seen as a strategic project aimed at strengthening the integration of Central and South Asia.
The initiative is expected to serve as a powerful stimulus for economic growth, trade expansion, development of transport and logistics connections and increasing the region's export potential. The project, the idea of which originated in the early 2000s, received official support in 2017 with the signing of an intergovernmental agreement between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.
In the following years, Kazakhstan, Russia and Pakistan joined the implementation, and since 2022, Qatar and the UAE have become financial and technical partners.
The length of the new railroad will be approximately 600 km, and a projected capacity of 20 mln. tons of freight per year. Construction is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2027, with full operation by 2030
The construction of the Trans-Afghan railway linking Termez, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kabul, and Peshawar is estimated at approximately 5 bln.USD. Once operational, the route is expected to significantly reduce freight transit time between Pakistan and Uzbekistan—from the current 35 days to just 3–5 days. It is also anticipated that the cost of transporting a standard container will drop by nearly two-thirds, making the corridor especially attractive for businesses. According to forecasts, the freight volume along the new railway could eventually reach 10 million tons per year.
Trans-Afghan Corridor (Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan)
Construction Project
The project holds significant strategic importance as it will substantially reduce the time and costs of transporting goods between Central Asia and the ports of the Arabian Sea, while also supporting the economic recovery of Afghanistan. It will strengthen Uzbekistan’s position as a key transport hub within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative.
This new transport corridor is intended to connect the European Union, Russia, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, and eventually extend to Southeast Asian countries.
At the same time, the successful implementation of the project requires addressing several serious challenges: ensuring security along the route, attracting sufficient investment, and harmonizing technical standards among the participating countries. The prospects of the Trans-Afghan Corridor directly depend on international coordination efforts and effective project management.
IV. Conclusions and strategic guidelines for deepening interconnectedness
The analysis of trade flows, infrastructure initiatives, and historical ties between Central and South Asia confirms the existence of a solid foundation and high potential for developing a strategic partnership.
Despite positive trends, mutual trade remains limited in both volume and product range, with a marked asymmetry in favor of South Asian countries. The development of transport connectivity - particularly through the implementation of cross-border corridors such as the Termez–Mazar-i-Sharif–Kabul–Peshawar railway - opens up opportunities to address these imbalances and stimulate economic flows.
At this stage, the key strategic guidelines should include:
- accelerated construction and commissioning of multimodal transport routes through Afghanistan;
- harmonization of technical, customs, and regulatory procedures;
- diversification of exports from Central Asia to South Asia, including high value-added goods;
- strengthened coordination among governments, international institutions, and the private sector.
These measures will help transform historical interconnectedness into a sustainable economic partnership that promotes regional stability and prosperity.
Amid global geo-economic shifts, enhancing interconnectedness between Central and South Asia is gaining not only economic but also strategic significance. Regional cooperation can become a powerful driver of sustainable development, reducing dependence on external markets and fostering the creation of domestic logistics and production chains.
Central Asia, leveraging its transit potential and growing economic ambitions, has a real opportunity to secure a prominent role in the new architecture of Eurasian connectivity.
